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Fed's Kashkari says rates likely to be on hold for 'extended period' (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank is likely to keep interest rates where they are "for a long time" until officials are confident inflation is on track toward their target .Most Read by BloombergIn an essay published earlier on Tuesday, the Minneapolis Fed chief said recent inflation data raised questions about whether monetary policy is tight enough to fully restore price growth to 2 percent, as officials policy makers consider the sweet spot in a healthy economy."The most likely scenario is that we sit here for a long time," he said Tuesday at the Milken Institute Global Conference. "If inflation starts to come down or we see some significant weakening in the labor market, then that could cause us to cut rates.""Or if we eventually become convinced that inflation is embedded or anchored now at 3% and we need to go higher, we would if we needed to," he added.Kashkari said that's not the most likely scenario — and the bar for raising rates is pretty high — but he wouldn't rule it out.Kashkari singled out persistent housing inflation as a possible indicator that neutral interest rates, those that neither constrain nor stimulate the economy, may be higher in the near term. That could mean the Fed has more work to do to reduce inflation, Kashkari wrote in the essay."My colleagues and I are of course very pleased that the labor market has proven resilient, but with inflation in the most recent quarter moving sideways, it raises questions about how restrictive policy really is," Kashkari wrote.Fed officials have kept interest rates unchanged since their July meeting, and stronger-than-expected inflation data prevented officials from cutting borrowing costs from the highest levels since 2001. Investors now expect just two cuts this year, from six to six in early 2024.Kashkari, who made two rate cuts for this year when Fed officials met in March, said on Tuesday he would forecast two to zero cuts for 2024 when officials meet in June, based on incoming data on inflation.Inflation as measured by the Fed's preferred gauge rose 2.7% in March. While this is lower than the 7.1% peak reached in 2022, it is faster than the 2.5% pace seen at the start of this year.The story continuesPrice pressuresOne of the biggest drivers of inflation right now is housing. A lack of supply is keeping prices high even as mortgage rates hover near their highest levels in more than 20 years.Read more: Rents are Fed's 'biggest obstacle' to curbing US inflation"Given that housing is a key channel through which monetary policy affects the economy, its resilience raises questions about whether policymakers and the market misperceive neutral, at least in the near term," he said.Kashkari said he raised his long-term forecast for a neutral rate to 2.5 percent from 2 percent. Some of his colleagues at the Federal Open Market Committee have also raised those estimates, with the median forecast for the long-term Fed Funds rate rising to 2.6% from 2.5% in the last forecast published in March.The head of the Minneapolis Fed, who does not vote on monetary policy this year, stressed that the central bank should set policy based on where the neutral rate is in the near term."Uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers," he added.Kashkari last published an essay in early February in which he said policymakers had time to gauge incoming data before cutting rates.He said at the time that changes in the post-pandemic economic recovery may mean that neutral rates have risen. Kashkari has written a series of essays since 2022 as the Fed tightens policy in an effort to reduce inflation.(Adds new Kashkari comments in ninth paragraph.)Most Read by Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg LP
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